Thursday, August 30, 2007
The Long March Home Log - updated 31 Aug 2007
Now that summer break has ended and classes are in session once again, it's time to update everyone on my progress on the Long March Home since June. It was a busy summer for me supervising my doctoral students in Environmental Dynamics at the U. of Arkansas. However, I remained committed to the cause, and walked to/from campus almost every day all summer. The graphic below charts my results: I have now surpassed 600 miles walking since 17 march 2007 (blue line on graph below). This walking has also offset just over 300 kg of carbon dioxide (magenta line on the graph below). Also, I managed to conserve so much gasoline, that I finally filled by tank on 24 August 2007 - the first fill-up since 16 May 2007. It is my hope that I can continue to conserve gasoline at that rate. In addition, I have lost 20 pounds and many people at my workplace have noticed that more than anything else - not a bad effort for one person. Just imagine if 35,000 people in my home town took the same action? Just imagine if you did it, too - and persuaded your friends, and they persuaded their friends...
Monday, June 25, 2007
The Price of Gas
During the last month or so, there has been much public comment in my local area regarding the price of gas, which is generally the highest price in our region. Some have suggested boycotting gas stations as a way to force the price of gas lower. This is not likely to work for the following reason: demand for gasoline in the U.S. and worldwide is at an all time high. If demand for fuel decreases in our local area, suppliers will simply shift those supplies to areas where demand remains high. Thus, the result of a gas boycott will be a reduction in local gas supply, leaving prices at their present high level. Even a long-term reduction in demand locally or in the U.S. will not force gas prices lower. If U.S. demand falls, supplies will shift to those nations where demand remains high. Thus, long-term decline in U.S. demand for gas will not lower prices, it will simply shrink domestic supplies. The lesson to be learned from this observation is that low gas prices are gone forever. Not using as much gasoline is the only way to avoid its high cost - so start walking or riding your bicycle or car pooling. Since I have adjusted my lifestyle, I have learned that I am not as dependent on my car as I thought I was. I need to plan my days more efficiently, but that is actually something of a benefit in a very busy life! You can do it, too!
Friday, April 27, 2007
The Long March Home Log - updated 25 Jun 2007
Since declaring my intentions 7 March 2007, I managed to walk to work an average of 3 days each week until 12 May 2007 (the last day of classes at the U. of Arkansas). Since 12 May 2007, I have averaged walking to work 4.7 days each week, greatly exceeding my stated goal of 1 day each week. The figure below presents a log of my mileage to 25 June 2007. The steep blue line is cumulative miles I have walked to-from my workplace, presently just over 350 miles. The magenta line represents the estimated gasoline savings (in U.S. gallons) since beginning the Long March Home. To date, this amounts to only about 19.9 gallons - modest, to be sure, but take note of this: I last filled my car's gas tank on 16 May 2007. Since that time I have used only half the fuel in the tank. At this rate of consumption, I will not fill it again until approximately 1 September 2007 - that will be 3.5 months on one tank of gas! If I could keep that up for an entire year, I would fill my tank less than 4 times. Now imagine if 10,000 Americans did the same thing. Then imagine 10 million Americans doing the same thing...it is not hard to then imagine our loved ones marching home from war.
Periodically I will update this post so others can follow my progress and, perhaps, be inspired to join me.
Periodically I will update this post so others can follow my progress and, perhaps, be inspired to join me.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Devaluing Humanity in a War of Diminishing Returns
Presently, the war for Persian Gulf oil costs $9B per month + the cost for each barrel (totalling about $4.2B/month @ $65/BBL). If Congress approves the $120B package for the next year, the oil war will cost $10B per month (what's an extra billion dollars per month?) + the cost of oil ($4.2B/month assuming $65/BBL) or about $14.2B/month for Perisan Gulf oil. The actual monetary cost per barrel of Persian Gulf oil is about $220/BBL (ca. $65/BBL + our monthly military expenditures), not counting the 'value' of human lives (some estimates suggest it costs $6.5M to train and equip a single soldier; this times 160,000 troops in Iraq = $1B; so, I guess by comparison, life is, indeed, cheap). To date, the 2007 casualty rate is on track to meet the exponential function as I've described it below, thanks to "the surge" and the "insurgents" (of course, I am not including the lives of Iraqis in these calculations). It is beyond time that we develop a culture of conservation. What are you willing to do? One really needs to wonder what other good could be done with billions of dollars each month.
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
The Long March Home - A National Movement
Greetings to all:
This blog has one and only one purpose. It is my humble attempt to help U.S. military personal around the world start their long march home.
This idea is an outgrowth of my analysis of U.S. military invovlement in the Persian Gulf since 1980 (see image below). It is often stated that our nation has been exchanging U.S. soldiers for oil since at least that time. I began to wonder whether or not this strategy was worth it over the long haul. The analysis below indicates that it clearly is not - but what is to be done about it?
What is to be done is this: persuade my fellow Americans that the total quantity of Persian Gulf oil our nation consumes is a small fraction of the total annual U.S. petroleum consumption (averaging only 11% from 1980-2006). If our nation were to develop a comprehensive national policy to conserve energy, we need only reduce our total consumption by 15% to completely eliminate our need for Persian Gulf oil.
Every one of us can think of ways to reduce our personal energy consumption by 15%. It's easy and has virtually no impact on the quality of your life.
If every American took 5 actions to reduce energy consumption, these would be 5 steps on the long march home for our troops. Collectively, the sum of these 5 steps would make the long march home possible. What more sincere action can each person take to support our troops than to help them make the long march home? This is a patriotic imperative for every American.
LET THE LONG MARCH HOME BEGIN TODAY, AND LET IT BEGIN WITH YOU!
To learn more, read my analysis below. You may agree or disagree with my conclusion, but the data below are correct (to the best of my knowledge) .
The diagram shows the relationship of U.S. imports of Persian Gulf oil (in barrels or BBL PG Oil) to U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater-of-operations over the period 1980-2006. At the top, oil imports dip to their lowest level in 1985, the height of the Iran-Iraq war. In 1987, escalation of attacks on Persian Gulf shipping led President Ronald Reagan to authorize reflagging of Kuwaiti petroleum carriers to enable the U.S. Navy to provide escort services, re-establishing continuous flow of oil from the Persian Gulf region and defending the international principle of Freedom of the Seas. By 1989, Persian Gulf oil exports to the U.S. stabilized (coincident with the end of the Iran-Iraq conflict) and remained stable to the present. The horizontal line represents the average quantity of Persian Gulf oil imported annually to the U.S. from 1980-2005 (approx. 600 MBBL per year, or 11% of total U.S. petroleum consumption). The lower portion of the plot displays U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater-of-operations from 1980-2006. The data are: 1980 failed U.S. embassy hostage rescue in Iran (8 killed-in-action, KIA), 1987 “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf (39 KIA, 21 wounded-in-action, WIA), 1991 Desert Shield/Desert Storm (383 KIA, 467 WIA), 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia (19 KIA, 515 WIA), 2003-2006 Operation Iraqi Freedom (2894 KIA-WIA in 2003; 8848 KIA-WIA in 2004; 6792 KIA-WIA in 2005; 7203 KIA-WIA in 2006). The growth of U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater is exponential. Extrapolating yields the result that U.S. military casualties equal BBL of Persian Gulf oil in A.D. 2049 – at which time the human cost of 1 BBL of Persian Gulf oil will be 1 U.S. soldier (and the human cost of a tank of gasoline will be, literally, an arm and a leg!). Of course, this is an absurd result but leads to the question “At what point on this trajectory does the U.S. abandon its claim to oil resources of the Persian Gulf region?” Note that the current national debate to “Stay The Course” or “Cut And Run” is equally absurd. An appropriate strategy would be a comprehensive U.S. policy reducing our national energy consumption by 15%. This would eliminate U.S. need for or interest in Persian Gulf oil, and U.S. military personnel could commence the long march home.
LET THE LONG MARCH HOME BEGIN TODAY, AND LET IT BEGIN WITH YOU!
For the record, here are my '5 Steps on the Long March Home':
1) I will walk to work at least 1 day each week. For me, this is a 7 mile round trip. Not only will this cut my weekly driving ca. 20%, it's good exercise. There will also be some long-term savings in terms of wear and tear on my automobile (tires, engine, oil changes, etc.).
2) I will install additional fluorescent lightbulbs in my home. This could reduce my energy use for lighting by up to 30%.
3) I will lower my thermostat 3 degrees in winter (to save heating energy) and raise my thermostat 3 degrees in summer (to save AC energy). I don't know how much energy this saves, but according to the Energy Information Administration, it should save 15% on my monthly utility bill which I assume means I used 15% less energy.
4) I will persuade my kids to turn off lights when they leave rooms. My house has 9 rooms altogether. This could save 15-20% overall.
5) I will persuade others to copy my actions above. This will be 15% for every person I can convince to do the same.
What 5 steps on the Long March Home will you take? Post your ideas and your 5 steps using the 'COMMENTS' link below.
This blog has one and only one purpose. It is my humble attempt to help U.S. military personal around the world start their long march home.
This idea is an outgrowth of my analysis of U.S. military invovlement in the Persian Gulf since 1980 (see image below). It is often stated that our nation has been exchanging U.S. soldiers for oil since at least that time. I began to wonder whether or not this strategy was worth it over the long haul. The analysis below indicates that it clearly is not - but what is to be done about it?
What is to be done is this: persuade my fellow Americans that the total quantity of Persian Gulf oil our nation consumes is a small fraction of the total annual U.S. petroleum consumption (averaging only 11% from 1980-2006). If our nation were to develop a comprehensive national policy to conserve energy, we need only reduce our total consumption by 15% to completely eliminate our need for Persian Gulf oil.
Every one of us can think of ways to reduce our personal energy consumption by 15%. It's easy and has virtually no impact on the quality of your life.
If every American took 5 actions to reduce energy consumption, these would be 5 steps on the long march home for our troops. Collectively, the sum of these 5 steps would make the long march home possible. What more sincere action can each person take to support our troops than to help them make the long march home? This is a patriotic imperative for every American.
LET THE LONG MARCH HOME BEGIN TODAY, AND LET IT BEGIN WITH YOU!
To learn more, read my analysis below. You may agree or disagree with my conclusion, but the data below are correct (to the best of my knowledge) .
The diagram shows the relationship of U.S. imports of Persian Gulf oil (in barrels or BBL PG Oil) to U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater-of-operations over the period 1980-2006. At the top, oil imports dip to their lowest level in 1985, the height of the Iran-Iraq war. In 1987, escalation of attacks on Persian Gulf shipping led President Ronald Reagan to authorize reflagging of Kuwaiti petroleum carriers to enable the U.S. Navy to provide escort services, re-establishing continuous flow of oil from the Persian Gulf region and defending the international principle of Freedom of the Seas. By 1989, Persian Gulf oil exports to the U.S. stabilized (coincident with the end of the Iran-Iraq conflict) and remained stable to the present. The horizontal line represents the average quantity of Persian Gulf oil imported annually to the U.S. from 1980-2005 (approx. 600 MBBL per year, or 11% of total U.S. petroleum consumption). The lower portion of the plot displays U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater-of-operations from 1980-2006. The data are: 1980 failed U.S. embassy hostage rescue in Iran (8 killed-in-action, KIA), 1987 “Tanker War” in the Persian Gulf (39 KIA, 21 wounded-in-action, WIA), 1991 Desert Shield/Desert Storm (383 KIA, 467 WIA), 1996 Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia (19 KIA, 515 WIA), 2003-2006 Operation Iraqi Freedom (2894 KIA-WIA in 2003; 8848 KIA-WIA in 2004; 6792 KIA-WIA in 2005; 7203 KIA-WIA in 2006). The growth of U.S. military casualties in the Persian Gulf theater is exponential. Extrapolating yields the result that U.S. military casualties equal BBL of Persian Gulf oil in A.D. 2049 – at which time the human cost of 1 BBL of Persian Gulf oil will be 1 U.S. soldier (and the human cost of a tank of gasoline will be, literally, an arm and a leg!). Of course, this is an absurd result but leads to the question “At what point on this trajectory does the U.S. abandon its claim to oil resources of the Persian Gulf region?” Note that the current national debate to “Stay The Course” or “Cut And Run” is equally absurd. An appropriate strategy would be a comprehensive U.S. policy reducing our national energy consumption by 15%. This would eliminate U.S. need for or interest in Persian Gulf oil, and U.S. military personnel could commence the long march home.
LET THE LONG MARCH HOME BEGIN TODAY, AND LET IT BEGIN WITH YOU!
For the record, here are my '5 Steps on the Long March Home':
1) I will walk to work at least 1 day each week. For me, this is a 7 mile round trip. Not only will this cut my weekly driving ca. 20%, it's good exercise. There will also be some long-term savings in terms of wear and tear on my automobile (tires, engine, oil changes, etc.).
2) I will install additional fluorescent lightbulbs in my home. This could reduce my energy use for lighting by up to 30%.
3) I will lower my thermostat 3 degrees in winter (to save heating energy) and raise my thermostat 3 degrees in summer (to save AC energy). I don't know how much energy this saves, but according to the Energy Information Administration, it should save 15% on my monthly utility bill which I assume means I used 15% less energy.
4) I will persuade my kids to turn off lights when they leave rooms. My house has 9 rooms altogether. This could save 15-20% overall.
5) I will persuade others to copy my actions above. This will be 15% for every person I can convince to do the same.
What 5 steps on the Long March Home will you take? Post your ideas and your 5 steps using the 'COMMENTS' link below.
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